Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.015282 0.017336 0.019571 0.022184 0.025158 0.028438 0.032335
2025-03-23 0.012294 0.015171 0.018580 0.022921 0.028313 0.034802 0.043224
2025-03-30 0.010066 0.013145 0.017009 0.022224 0.029097 0.037875 0.049982
2025-04-06 0.008651 0.011831 0.016011 0.021926 0.030114 0.041094 0.057017
2025-04-13 0.007398 0.010524 0.014803 0.021109 0.030213 0.042948 0.062237
2025-04-20 0.006858 0.010112 0.014730 0.021794 0.032391 0.047798 0.072084
2025-04-27 0.006369 0.009702 0.014591 0.022328 0.034349 0.052454 0.082058
2025-05-04 0.005986 0.009398 0.014559 0.022988 0.036518 0.057579 0.093215
2025-05-11 0.005458 0.008811 0.014027 0.022795 0.037300 0.060576 0.101228
2025-05-18 0.005047 0.008362 0.013661 0.022814 0.038394 0.064128 0.110447
2025-05-25 0.004617 0.007839 0.013119 0.022478 0.038842 0.066615 0.118047
2025-06-01 0.004356 0.007573 0.012973 0.022788 0.040402 0.071098 0.129537
2025-06-08 0.004010 0.007136 0.012511 0.022524 0.040964 0.073953 0.138512
2025-06-15 0.003847 0.007010 0.012578 0.023212 0.043309 0.080224 0.154498
2025-06-22 0.003495 0.006505 0.011924 0.022508 0.042995 0.081550 0.161133
2025-06-29 0.003236 0.006150 0.011507 0.022207 0.043402 0.084245 0.170682
2025-07-06 0.002934 0.005687 0.010850 0.021379 0.042698 0.084710 0.175747
2025-07-13 0.002848 0.005633 0.010964 0.022073 0.045081 0.091483 0.194523
2025-07-20 0.002750 0.005544 0.011003 0.022614 0.047195 0.097891 0.213171
2025-07-27 0.002671 0.005488 0.011100 0.023282 0.049631 0.105176 0.234463
2025-08-03 0.002508 0.005246 0.010800 0.023087 0.050200 0.108546 0.247355
2025-08-10 0.002380 0.005064 0.010608 0.023106 0.051234 0.113005 0.263171
2025-08-17 0.002228 0.004821 0.010267 0.022765 0.051433 0.115627 0.274955